Tucson MLS Statistics September 2008

August came and disappeared before I even wrote a detailed look at the Statistics. I didn’t realize this till I set out to create the Stats table for September. August was a very decent month and September was even better compared to year over year and month over month.

Tucson MLS Statistics Sept 08 – Sept 08 Summary

Category
Aug
2008
Sept
2008
Diff.
Avg. Sale Price $238,504 $217,397 – $21,107
Total Units Sold 903 934 + 31
Median Sale Price $185,000 $180,500 – $4,500
Pending Contracts 878 836 – 42
Active Listings 7,763 7,858 + 95
New Listings 1,952 2,039 + 87

The median and average sale prices continued their decline in September. These sale prices reflect the return of the market to both more affordable housing and prices at a more sustainable market value. There were slight increases in inventory and the number of pending contracts is holding around the 900 mark. So far October is off to a heathy start despite all the economic turmoil of the past weeks. Now lets look at the Year Over Year Figures

Tucson MLS Statistics Sept 07 – Sept 08 Summary

Category
Sept
2007
Sept
2008
Diff.
Avg. Sale Price $272,396 $217,397 – $54,999
Total Units Sold 774 934 + 160
Median Sale Price $215,000 $180,500 – $34,500
Pending Contracts 989 836 – 154*
Active Listings 9,190 7,858 – 816
New Listings 2,497 2,039 – 458

*Pending Sales appear to be down, but the * tells us these two numbers are not comparable. A few months back the Tucson MLS started tracking pending sales as “Sales that went pending during the month” instead of “All sales with a pending status in the system” If a sale had a two or three month wait while pending till close of escrow it was counted in each months statistics as a pending sale. The way they are reported now is much better. To have 836 sales in the month going pending vs 989 in the entire system pending appears to be a decrease, but actually is a nice increase over last year.

Trends in most categories are dropping where they should drop and increasing where they need to for a stable and healthy market.

Checking on availability of credit finds there is credit available for qualified buyers. It might actually be easier to buy a house right now than it is a car.

Tucson’s housing market is not flooded with high inventory. There are some areas of Tucson with less than 6 months of inventory. There also does not appear to be a glut of short sales and foreclosures in the Tucson Market in the percentages found in many other markets across the country. This is not to say we don’t have them. We do, both, but it isn’t the majority of properties on the market, far from it.

Since most real estate transactions take anywhere from 30 to 45 days to complete it will be November before we see what the impact of the past few weeks has had on our local market. It does appear there are some bargains to be had at the moment. And not in short sales and foreclosures which can take months ( Typically 6 month ) to close.

Investors (the real ones, not speculators trying to get rich on a quick, paint carpet flip, strategy) are making their way back into the Tucson market.

Finally, if you are thinking about selling your Tucson home and moving, either in Tucson or out of state consider this. Check your interest rate on your existing mortgage, can you get a better rate now? Second, Are homes where you want to move cheaper to purchase now than the home you are thinking of selling in Tucson?

It is better not to think about what you could have gotten for your home last year or the year before and think about what it will cost you to purchase another home now. You might get less for your existing home, but can you buy more home at a lower interest rate. If the answer is yes, then now might be a good time to make the move. If you wait, you might get a little more when the market turns around but you will probably pay more and once the market turns interest rates are sure to follow.


Before & Next Post

2 thoughts on “Tucson MLS Statistics September 2008”

  1. Dave:
    Sorry I misinterpreted your post from yesterday, but your comments about nothing is perfect, I believe, are quite apposite to real estate. Because, if folks are waiting for the perfect time to buy (or sell) then they will never take any action.

    It certainly appears with the way the market is going that it will soon be a good time to step into the Tucson real estate market. I believe this because it has taken these last couple of years for many sellers to capitulate to the fact that it ain’t ’05 or even ’06 anymore.

    Regarding today’s post, I must complement you for your dedication and hard work; you have been providing the people, such as me, who regularly read your site with invaluable information about both Tucson in general and its residential real estate market. I must also commend you for your comment “…now might be a good time to make the move” for such a common sense marketing statement. It is quite unusual to read a comment from someone in RE who isn’t insisting that NOW is a good time for everyone to buy. As you very accurately note, it all depends on one’s situation.

    Anyway, keep up your terrific work–it really is very enjoyable reading your commentary. If there is any silver lining here, it’s that we have truly entered a much more sustainable market. Good luck with finding clients, I am certain that with your patience and expertise that you will serve them well.

  2. Frank,

    Thank you for your kind words. I try very hard to provide unbiased commentary on our market. It is always nice to hear there are individuals like you who read my writing and benefit from it.

    I still have to finish writing today’s post to you which you have made even easier to do with your thoughts, words and input.

    Your comments have been very thought provoking. Thank you again for taking the time to comment. I really do appreciate it.

    It would be great to have a cup of coffee together some time soon. I’ll buy. LOL

    Dave

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